This article contains adult content that may be inappropriate for minors. Please confirm that you are 18 years or older to continue. This article contains images or details that some readers may find disturbing. Reader discretion is advised. Bayern's thrashing of Atalanta in Italy, Atlético Madrid's victory over Tottenham, and Barcelona's last-minute penalty equalizer against Newcastle have further diminished Portugal's chances of securing an extra spot in next season's UEFA Champions League. The two countries with the most points in the UEFA annual coefficient at the end of this season will be entitled to enter an additional club in the Champions League compared to what they would have based on the ranking. In 2026/2027, as a consequence of last season's seventh place, Portugal qualifies the champion directly for the group stage and the runner-up for the third qualifying round. England has one of those spots practically guaranteed. Germany, Spain, Italy, and Portugal are competing for the second spot. Currently, Germany, with 17.857 points this season, is in the lead — Bayern's victory added 0.286 points to the German coefficient. Moreover, Bayern's qualification for the quarter-finals is virtually guaranteed, which will be worth an additional 0.214 points. Nevertheless, Spain has closed the gap: Atlético's victory and Barcelona's draw added 0.375 points to the Spanish coefficient, which now stands at 17.781 points — just 0.076 points behind. Italy, in fourth place with 17.357 points, did not add any points — worse still, with Atalanta's elimination virtually certain, it will be left without clubs in the Champions League. Portugal, with 16.600 points, is hoping for a good result from Sporting this Wednesday in Norway, preferably a victory (which would add 0.400 points to the annual ranking, bringing it to 17.000). Despite trailing Italy, Portugal has better chances of securing that extra spot — according to calculations from X Football Meets Data, Portugal's chances stand at 6.73 percent, while Italy's are only 0.31 percent following Atalanta's defeat. Spain, with yesterday's results, has strengthened its candidacy — increasing its chances by 3 percentage points, now at 56.82 percent. Germany has a 35.62 percent chance of finishing the year in second place, behind England.
Extra Spot Tottenham remains central to this story.
Extra Spot Tottenham remains central to this story.
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